Ok so this is interesting. I am not sure this number is accurate I haven’t fully vetted it. I do this same type of forecasting. Morgan Stanley said for current capex commitments by 2027 4th quarter they needed to be 700 billion in profit. The problem is to meet that number they would need full market saturation and another 3 trillion in capex for build out. That means the entire accessible market would be using AI. They have another problem that more than half the world cannot access AI in its current form. The tooling these companies are using are wasteful and don’t meet the bandwidth needs of mobile first countries. So until the industry adopts things like https://codecai.net/ half the world’s markets are inaccessible. Finally they are under attack from all sides even if they had the money they may not have the ability to build out the AI infrastructure because that build out is becoming untenable for most communities. Even more the open source models and low cost AI are already in someways encroaching quickly on frontier systems. If you look at it right now the only reason you don’t have home AI as a commonplace solution is because the manufacturer has chosen not to sell it to you.
The local models thing is the real threat. For what 90% of the world who actually cares and wants AI, a local model is probably already “good enough”. Or would be if they could get the hardware, or maybe they don’t know how to set one up.
Got a 27b model running on my gaming GPU. Its a bit slow but good enough to look someing up, causual coding, and stupid questions.
China is really kicking ass with the open source models.
This isn’t the same thing as making VCRs cheap enough that every home has one. There is no FOMO wirh AI at the consumer level, no one knows what to do with it. The only people who want it are the ones who male it!!
Ok so this is interesting. I am not sure this number is accurate I haven’t fully vetted it. I do this same type of forecasting. Morgan Stanley said for current capex commitments by 2027 4th quarter they needed to be 700 billion in profit. The problem is to meet that number they would need full market saturation and another 3 trillion in capex for build out. That means the entire accessible market would be using AI. They have another problem that more than half the world cannot access AI in its current form. The tooling these companies are using are wasteful and don’t meet the bandwidth needs of mobile first countries. So until the industry adopts things like https://codecai.net/ half the world’s markets are inaccessible. Finally they are under attack from all sides even if they had the money they may not have the ability to build out the AI infrastructure because that build out is becoming untenable for most communities. Even more the open source models and low cost AI are already in someways encroaching quickly on frontier systems. If you look at it right now the only reason you don’t have home AI as a commonplace solution is because the manufacturer has chosen not to sell it to you.
The local models thing is the real threat. For what 90% of the world who actually cares and wants AI, a local model is probably already “good enough”. Or would be if they could get the hardware, or maybe they don’t know how to set one up.
Got a 27b model running on my gaming GPU. Its a bit slow but good enough to look someing up, causual coding, and stupid questions. China is really kicking ass with the open source models.
Same, a 35B model is running on my gaming rig. It’s good enough for most things, even coding.
Just wish I had more VRAM and could load it faster.
This isn’t the same thing as making VCRs cheap enough that every home has one. There is no FOMO wirh AI at the consumer level, no one knows what to do with it. The only people who want it are the ones who male it!!