massive drop in revenue expectations

This is still future predictions.

The pop happens when the bonds cannot be repaid.

On September 21st OpenAIs sponsor, BB+ issuer Softbank, placed an $11 billion single bond sale to fund an AI infrastructure bet, and it was oversubscribed.

The bubble is still inflating.

It shines at interpolation. It fails at extrapolation.

I’m comparing the whole of human knowledge to 5 years of additional facts. Most useful things are known. An llm doesn’t need to know the current US president to invent a biscuit recipe.

In theory the “reasoning” part doesn’t need a knowledge update.

Cost/benefit maybe the knowledge update only needs something every 5 years.

Basically I can see a world where inference is provided and consumed at cost. I can’t see one where customers are willing to cough up billions for a slight increase in the knowledge base.

Is it? It’s vital to the tech giants marketing and trillion dollar valuation. But I don’t think it’s vital to most of their clients anymore.

All the AI companies are running at loss

That is if you include training. Look at deepseek for an idea of inference costs. At that level AI coding is sustainable (but not worth $2tn).