I don’t like Anthropic’s long term prospects, but OpenAI is specifically in trouble, near term.
Their whole premise was becoming a Facebook-style “where else are you gonna go?” captured market on the consumer side, and that is clearly not happening. They wanted an enterprise monopoly, and those business customers are looking elsewhere.
Even if openai tanked tomorrow it would just be bought by Microsoft and become copilot AI.
The failure of the company is bad for current investors but it’s not a public company and as others have mentioned there is not yet enough instability in the rest of the industry. Google is still trucking along without issue even if they don’t make the news and people are still giving Muse access to all their shit.
Other companies/institutions have heavy investments in OpenAI.
Other companies’ expected long-term revenue depends on OpenAI.
They are the “face” of LLMs to finance world. If they tank, the illusion shatters, and investments pulls out of “AI” everywhere.
I agree that Google, Meta, the companies will be fine, as you said. Nvidia/AMD will be fine. Even XAI will be fine. The physical companies and their business aren’t going anywhere.
But their stocks will drop precipitously, and drag others into the rut with them like a black hole.
This article conveniently ignores the fact that Anthropic is reporting a second profitable quarter to investors.
Yeah.
I don’t like Anthropic’s long term prospects, but OpenAI is specifically in trouble, near term.
Their whole premise was becoming a Facebook-style “where else are you gonna go?” captured market on the consumer side, and that is clearly not happening. They wanted an enterprise monopoly, and those business customers are looking elsewhere.
Their ass is cooked.
Even if openai tanked tomorrow it would just be bought by Microsoft and become copilot AI.
The failure of the company is bad for current investors but it’s not a public company and as others have mentioned there is not yet enough instability in the rest of the industry. Google is still trucking along without issue even if they don’t make the news and people are still giving Muse access to all their shit.
It’s not that simple, as:
Other companies/institutions have heavy investments in OpenAI.
Other companies’ expected long-term revenue depends on OpenAI.
They are the “face” of LLMs to finance world. If they tank, the illusion shatters, and investments pulls out of “AI” everywhere.
I agree that Google, Meta, the companies will be fine, as you said. Nvidia/AMD will be fine. Even XAI will be fine. The physical companies and their business aren’t going anywhere.
But their stocks will drop precipitously, and drag others into the rut with them like a black hole.
So they’ll drop from inflated to fairly priced?
That I would not even try to predict. I don’t know how far this bubble burst will go.
A certain Ponzi dude also dis every quarter for a while
“profitable”
https://www.wheresyoured.at/anthropics-profitability-swindle/
Uh huh. And that’s despite government propping and no returns on stocks on top of possibly cooking the books.
I suspect we won’t know their real state of finances until they go public and are held to a higher standard for their accounting practices: https://www.wheresyoured.at/anthropics-profitability-swindle/
Agreed, and I didn’t specify that they are legit making a realized profit, purely that’s what they’re reporting to investors.