Why not? Bubbles can last decades and peak years before they collapse, and this bubble is still growing. It is certain it will eventually collapse, but I wouldn’t be so confident trying to put a date on it.
It’s not sustainable. The data centers need to produce money soon, and currently, it’s not even clear when they will get the power they need or if AGI/ASI is even possible with our current approach to LLMs. The money that went into the construction is gone, and no ROI is visible anywhere. The amount of debt is staggering, and debtors won’t wait forever.
Bubbles can last decades, this one won’t.
There is a reason why RAM production is not ramping up. The collapse is too close to make it feasible.
Debtors will wait as long as they think it will take to get their investment back, and AI companies can’t currently pay any of those debts, so their investors will keep waiting until they can. Similarly, RAM companies have almost complete control of supply while demand is through the roof - they’re making money hand over fist, there’s no incentive for them to expand when that will only impact their profits at the moment.
Bubbles last so long because the mechanisms of capitalism encourage making them last so long. The bigger the bubble, the more you risk losing in the pop, the more incentive there is to keep growing it. The world already has 10 times more debt in circulation than it does money, adding more doesn’t bother capitalists.
Uk what? I think it’s good it keeps pumping. Iran war is raising interest rates, making it difficult for USA itself to finance it’s own debt. Let everything go up, make sure bubble crashes exactly when the USA government cannot even willingly bail these companies out.
Why not? Bubbles can last decades and peak years before they collapse, and this bubble is still growing. It is certain it will eventually collapse, but I wouldn’t be so confident trying to put a date on it.
It’s not sustainable. The data centers need to produce money soon, and currently, it’s not even clear when they will get the power they need or if AGI/ASI is even possible with our current approach to LLMs. The money that went into the construction is gone, and no ROI is visible anywhere. The amount of debt is staggering, and debtors won’t wait forever.
Bubbles can last decades, this one won’t.
There is a reason why RAM production is not ramping up. The collapse is too close to make it feasible.
Debtors will wait as long as they think it will take to get their investment back, and AI companies can’t currently pay any of those debts, so their investors will keep waiting until they can. Similarly, RAM companies have almost complete control of supply while demand is through the roof - they’re making money hand over fist, there’s no incentive for them to expand when that will only impact their profits at the moment.
Bubbles last so long because the mechanisms of capitalism encourage making them last so long. The bigger the bubble, the more you risk losing in the pop, the more incentive there is to keep growing it. The world already has 10 times more debt in circulation than it does money, adding more doesn’t bother capitalists.
Uk what? I think it’s good it keeps pumping. Iran war is raising interest rates, making it difficult for USA itself to finance it’s own debt. Let everything go up, make sure bubble crashes exactly when the USA government cannot even willingly bail these companies out.